Probability Machine

What your child will figure out

• Distinguish a likely single outcome from a guaranteed outcome.
• Predict and interpret the long-run distribution produced by a weighted random machine.
• Explain how changing the machine's odds changes its long-run pattern.
• Transfer long-run probability reasoning from weighted marbles to sums of two dice.

The levels

1. One mystery drop

   Predict one weighted drop and explain why its result does not make another result due.

2. See the shape

   Predict and observe the distribution made by 40 drops from a 3-to-1 mix.

3. Change the odds

   Change the marble mix and predict how the long-run distribution will respond.

4. Dice sum lab

   Transfer long-run pattern reasoning to the sums of two dice.